Thoughts on Politics...what else?

So I've been doing a lot of thinking lately about the Virginia gubernatorial race. I don't know what to do. I personally don't like Bob McDonnell, and I disagree with at least half of his ideals. I'm not really fond of Creigh Deeds, and I'm also against a bunch of his policies. Deeds is also just a horrible candidate, lacking the poise to compete against McDonnell. I have literally cringed after some of the botched statements he's made about taxes, transportation, and a few others. But for as many bad statements as Deeds has made, McDonnell still clings to party-line talking points.

And that's why I'm stuck. I have a hard time not voting on Tuesday, because I believe in the democratic process and my own civic duty. But I also have a problem casting a vote for a candidate I don't fully believe in. The 2008 election was more clear-cut for me. I was able to cast votes for candidates I felt (strongly) were the best choice. I stand by my choices. But now, what do I do? Cast a vote for a candidate when I don't believe in either?

I definitely see Virginia as a moderate state, center-right overall, but we have had decent elected politicians who were Democrats. But when faced with a choice between a Republican and a (botched) Democratic candidate, this state is going red. I see this gubernatorial race the same way I saw the 2004 presidential race - there was a lot of dissatisfaction with Bush, but did anyone seriously believe that John Kerry was a strong candidate, or that he would be a better president? It was like choosing between the lesser of two evils, and I find myself in that place again.

A lot of pundits are talking up the Virginia gubernatorial race as a referendum on Obama's presidency and the role of the Democratic Party. I disagree. Obama's approval rating in Virginia is in the low- to mid-50's, depending on the poll, about the same margin by which he won the state last year. But yet McDonnell leads in current polls by a significant margin. I think there's a fundamental flaw in the pundits' logic. Virginians aren't evaluating Obama in this race, they're evaluating two candidates, and the Democratic one sucks. The other big races are the New Jersey governor's race and the NY-23 special election. The NJ race may well go to Corzine (Democrat), even though his approval ratings are in the 30's, thanks to a third-party candidate. No matter what happens, it will be close. NY-23 is interesting because there appears to be a fractioning of the Republican base, perhaps enough to propel a Democrat to a narrow victory in a traditionally conservative district. I think NY-23 is the most interesting of all these contests. The New Jersey race is a lot of dissatisfaction with the whole political system, such that neither Corzine or Christie is really palatable. In NY-23, Republicans have to get their message straight if they want to gain more national influence. Are they purifying themselves away from moderates, or are they going to unite before the 2010 midterms? There's the more interesting story.

My predictions: McDonnell wins Virginia by perhaps even 10 points, Corzine wins in NJ because Daggett grabs enough of the vote (10-15%) to make the race close, and Owens (D) takes NY-23 again by a slim margin, because Hoffman might take as much as 30-35% of the conservative vote. Splitting the base is never helpful, but we'll see what the Independents do.

Tangent over. So after all that positing and predicting, I still don't know what to do about my home state. What is an undecided voter to do, when neither candidate is appealing? Any Libertarians out there? Maybe I'll just write in my own name and go home. In some ways, I find it better to not make a halfhearted choice that I come to regret. But after encouraging friends to register to vote in 2008 (regardless of their voting/party preference), is that hypocritical, or the right thing to do? I'd rather not be the reason our state gets screwed up. Virginia currently ranks highly in business prosperity and education nationally, and I'd hate to see anything change that.

So I'll do some more reading and thinking this weekend, but I may find myself staying away from the polls on Tuesday. Sigh...